The defending Super Bowl champs rarely repeat, right? Well, the problem with that statement is this: picking the Super Bowl champions to win the Super Bowl is a bad pick because it’s not likely to happen, except it’s just as good or better than any other pick you would make.

they are the defending champ, and the champ rarely repeats. But identify for me one other category of team that does better. The team with the first overall pick (Carolina), nah. A team like Detroit, with a young quarterback, 3rd year coach, coming off a losing season. I bet if we went back through all teams like that, they rarely win a Super Bowl.
                                                             
The annual Football Outsiders Almanac, the essential guide to the 2011 season, the book that correctly predicted 9 of 12 playoff teams last year, fully updated with post-lockout free agency and trades, is once again available for sale as a pdf document, or as a printed book.
While I find the printed phone book awkward, I prefer having it around to flip through while I'm watching ESPN. And I'm more likely to stumble upon a random page with a book. But I love that the pdf document is almost $10 cheaper (and delivered immediately).
I had the opportunity to ask Mike Tanier a few questions after I read the chapter he wrote on the Green Bay Packers for their 2011 edition.

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Q: James Starks has a respectable regular season DVOA of 6.6%, but that's essentially one regular season game, and he didn't really shine until the playoffs. Did you calculate his performance during the playoffs too?

A: Yes, his DVOA during the playoffs was -1.8%. As much as he is known for shining during the playoffs, he had 25 carries for 66 yards against Atlanta. He was much better in the first week against Philadelphia, which is where the reputation for playoff performance came from. He was pretty good in the Super Bowl too. Of course, the big issue right now is that he has barely participated in the preseason.Rad more